Three scenarios for the Green Agenda up for public debate soon

The draft Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan, as well as the draft Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia up to 2040 with projections up to 2050 will be part of a broader public debate. Interested civil society organizations and all citizens, business entities, universities and academia will be able to provide comments, suggestions and proposals.

“At the recently held Working Group meeting of the EU Project Further Development of Energy Planning Capacity, another important step was taken in the process of developing the Integrated National and Climate Plan for the period from 2021 to 2030 with projections for Serbia until 2050,” said Sofia Nikolakaki, Project Director and added that three proposed scenarios that could be part of the future Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Serbia were presented.

 Serbia is a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement, the Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans and the Energy Community Treaty. The Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan is a key document in the implementation of the Green Agenda in Serbia, and its preparation is foreseen by the Law on Energy. Together with the energy investment plan that the Ministry of Mining and Energy is working on, the implementation of this plan should contribute to higher economic growth rates, creation of new jobs and a balance between the development of the energy sector and environmental protection.

In the development phase so far a total of 33 scenarios were proposed to the Working Group, of which a smaller number was selected after the analysis of all proposals received. The proposed scenarios will be publicly available and every citizen, organization or business entity will be able to access them and provide their opinion. The Energy Community Secretariat will also evaluate the draft INECP and provide an opinion on the defined targets and on compliance with EU policies in the field of energy and climate.

Full transparency and participation of all interested parties is a key element of the INECP adoption process, as the Ministry’s goal is to reach the broadest social consensus on the most important strategic documents for energy development by the time they are proposed for adoption.

The Working Group for the preparation of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Serbia includes representatives of relevant ministries and institutions, as well as the non-governmental sector, while representatives of the Energy Community, the European Commission, the EU Delegation to the Republic of Serbia and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) monitor the preparation process and provide advice.

The existing structure of the energy sector in Serbia requires serious changes, arrangements and investments, in order to be harmonized with the European policy in this area. With the adoption of the new legislative framework in the field of energy transition, the first step in Serbia’s energy transition and the Green Agenda implementation was made.

The Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan will set targets that will lead to a greater share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix, increase in energy efficiency, decarbonisation, i.e. reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), further development of the internal energy market, as well as encouragement of research, innovation and competitiveness, which are the five basic dimensions of the Energy Union Governance Regulation. The Plan will also contain macroeconomic and energy projections and scenarios that assess the relevant impact of such defined policies and proposed measures.

The capacity for modelling was developed based on the existing Serbian Energy Modelling System (SEMS), which was created within the framework of the previous EU-funded project: “Development of Energy Planning Capacity” (IPA 2013), which was also implemented by the Ministry of Mining and energy and the same team of consultants. The subsequent “Further Development of Energy Planning Capacity” Project, for which the EU provided EUR 900 thousand in grants, should additionally calibrate the SEMS model with updated data, and supplement it with two additional tools: a tool for macroeconomic analysis (based on MANAGE) and a tool for a high degree of participation of RES (based on ANTARES) for the analysis of the possibility of including a large amount of renewable energy sources (RES) in the power system. These three modelling tools significantly improve the energy and climate planning process.

In the past two decades, the EU has invested more than EUR 830 million in the energy sector. In 2022 alone, the EU support to Serbia’s energy sector is estimated at EUR 100 million.